Iraqis I've been talking to say that there is a silent majority among the Shia in Iraq's south who don't like either the Mahdi Army or ISCI (Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq), although they're not represented by any organized force. They include tribal leaders, followers of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, remnants of the secular, urban middle class, and others. One question is: do they have any potential? Is there any likelihood of a "Shia Awakening," modeled on the Sunni-led Awakening (sahwa) in Anbar?

In the Times today there is a photo of Prime Minister Maliki shaking hands with a group of southern tribal leaders. The caption reads:

Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki met with tribal elders in Basra, seeking an alliance with Shiites, as Americans had done with Sunni tribes in the so-called Anbar Awakening.

When I asked a senior U.S. military commander about the establishment of "Concerned Local Citizen" (CLC) groups in southern Iraq, he said:

"From a security point of view, or maybe from a political base as well, deep in the south there are no CLC groups being formed. They’re not being allowed to form. They’re not going to form CLC groups. There’s enough different elements in the south that are well armed that will continue to provide the security they provide. The CLC groups are not part of the landscape in the deep south. But CLC groups in the belt south of Baghdad have formed. Twenty percent of all local CLC groups are Shia. And they’ve been the newer of the CLC groups."

But is something happening in Nasiriya, the capital of Dhi Qar province?

There was heavy fighting there between the Mahdi Army and the Iraqi government forces, presumabhly including ISCI forces and the Badr Corps, last week. From the Times:

There was intense fighting for a second day north of Basra in Dhi Qar Province and its capital, Nasiriya, where officials said the toll on Saturday was 28 killed and 59 wounded. There were running battles on a main bridge in Nasiriya, an Iraqi police officer said, and gunmen controlled the town of Shatra, about 20 miles north.

Then VOI reports that tribesmen in that city allied themselves with the government. Here's an excerpt:

Hundreds of Dhi Qar's tribesmen joined a demonstration on Tuesday that supported the government's attempts to impose law and stabilize security in Iraq's provinces. They issued a statement to disavow outlaws, demanding to limit the ownership of weapons to the state exclusively, and to show tribes' readiness to assist security forces in confronting armed groups. ...

In a statement issued by the demonstrating tribes and received by Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq – (VOI), the tribes asserted that they disavow "any outlaw, or anyone who would try to disturb the peace and security in our city and Iraq, and to inform security forces of any violation, if it occurs, and to forbid any Iraqi blood, regardless of it roots and ideologies."

The release indicated that the tribes agreed to consider it "lawful to kill anyone who commits any aggressive act against the law or security services, and he should pay 150 million Iraqi dinars in compensation, according to the tribal traditions, in addition to the regular legal measures."

It also referred, "A tribe or individual is responsible for protecting a wanted suspect or storing weapons that would be used against the state, and anyone who commits a sin, crime, disturbs the country's security, or attacks the state's properties, will be arrested, according to the law, regardless of his political affiliation or influences, and his tribe will not demand his release, and the law will deal with him."

Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute wonders about this too:

What does the agreement between tribal leaders in Dhi Qar Province and the Iraqi Government portend? Will the government accept "sons of Iraq" in Shia areas? This development could be the start of a significant shift in the political sands in southern Iraq--or not.